Below are a few news items from the last week about developments in the post-Soviet space that have been overshadowed by the Georgian events but that merit attention.
MOSCOW TO GIVE RICHER REGIONS LESS, SPARKING NEW DISPUTES. The Russian government has announced that beginning in the next fiscal year it will give the wealthier regions of the country less tax money in order to be able to send more to poorer ones, “Nezavisimaya gazeta” reported. While this step could lead to a reduction in differences in the standard of living among the regions, it is likely to trigger demands by the richer regions to have more control over their spending, something that in turn could exacerbate their relations with Moscow and with other regions as well (www.ng.ru/economics/2008-08-18/1_dotatsii.html).
MOSCOW OBLAST RESIDENTS INCREASINGLY OPPOSED TO UNIFICATION WITH MOSCOW CITY. According to polls conducted by the Levada Center in 2005 and this year, the percentage of residents in Moscow oblast who favor the amalgamation of their region with the city of Moscow has fallen from 62 percent to 39 percent, while the number opposed has risen from 22 percent to 42 percent over the same period. In Moscow city, there has been little change in the percentages of supporters and opponents (www.levada.ru/press/2008082201.html).
RUSSIAN COURT FINDS FRAUD BUT WON’T OVERTURN ARKHANGELSK VOTE. A court in Arkhangelsk declared that there had been fraud in the recent Arkhangelsk mayoral elections but that it was not sufficiently large to justify cancelling the results and holding a new poll. Lawyers for Larisa Bazanova, the unsuccessful candidate in the race against Moscow’s preferred candidate, said they would appeal ultimately to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg (www.rosbaltnord.ru/2008/08/20/515302.html).
MEDVEDEV GRANTS RUSSIAN CITIZEN TO CRIMINAL WANTED IN MOLDOVA. In yet another demonstration of the Kremlin’s willingness to flout international law, President Dmitry Medvedev has granted Russian citizenship to Grigory Karamalak, who is known in the Moldovan criminal world as “the Bulgarian” and is still being sought by the Moldovan government (www.nr2.ru/incidents/192578.html).
ONE PERCENT OF IRKUTSK OBLAST POPULATION NOW HIV INFECTED. According to official figures – and the actual figures are almost certainly higher – one percent of the residents of Irkutsk oblast are now HIV infected, a rate that suggests Irkutsk may now lead the Russian Federation and one that officials there say may rapidly be approaching the point where it will be beyond their ability to control (babr.ru/?pt=news&event=v1&IDE=47102).
RUSSIAN PRISONERS NOT BEING GIVEN NEEDED MEDICINES. Prison officials in the North Caucasus are not providing the medicines inmates need, causing many of them to suffer and others to infect others when they are released into the civilian population. This sad state of affairs came to light when one prisoner sent an email to “Argumenty nedeli,” an email prison officials monitored and then took action by providing the man who complained with the medical treatment he needed in a failed effort to prevent that Moscow weekly from talking about this situation (http://www.argumenti.ru/publications/7533).
MOSCOW TO SUBSIDIZE RUSSIA’S MUSLIMS TO STUDY ARABIC, ISLAM. The Federal Agency for Education has announced that the Russian government will provide scholarship assistance to Russia’s Muslims who want to study Arabic and Islamic societies. One unusual aspect of this program, which members of other faiths are likely to object to, is that those who apply must be recommended by the Muslim Spiritual Directorate (MSD) in the region where they live (www.interfax-religion.ru/islam/?act=news&div=26140).
EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN NUMBER OF MOSQUES IN TATARSTAN, STILL NONE IN BESLAN. Over the past 10 years, the number of mosques in Tatarstan has nearly doubled from 755 to 1348, more than 500 of which are active and all but about 150 are registered with the state (http://www.islam.ru/rus/2008-08-21/#22344). But in the North Caucasus, where many people believe that the Islamic expansion is far greater, the number of mosques is increasing much less quickly, thus opening the way for underground radicals to play the dominant role in the life of many Muslims there.
KAZAN TO ERECT MONUMENT TO TATARS WHO RESISTED MOSCOW IN 1552. The city of Kazan plans to erect a monument to those Tatars who resisted the forces of Ivan the Terrible when he attacked and ultimately conquered that city in 1552. The monument, which officials there say is in “harmony” with the architecture of the city, will be unveiled on the 456th anniversary of Moscow’s victory (http://grani.ru/Politics/Russia/Regions/m.140376.html).
PAPER THAT ATTACKED RUSSIAN NATIONALISTS MAY BE CLOSED FOR QUOTING THEM. Moscow prosecutors have introduced a new Catch-22 for the Russian media: They have warned a paper that quoted Russian nationalist extremists in order to condemn them that it could be closed for publishing what the extremists had said, “Novyye izvestiya” reported. What this means, media experts said, is that journalists will now be forced to criticize what they cannot quote (www.newizv.ru/news/2008-08-18/96180/).
KPRF COMMITS ITSELF TO BLOCKING ANY REVOLUTION IN RUSSIA … The Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the successor of the Bolsheviks who carried out the October 1917 revolution, has committed itself to oppose any revolution in Russia, some of its critics on the left report (forum.msk.ru/material/kompromat/518541.html).
…AS PATRIARCH IS ASKED WHETHER BLOOD LIBEL IS CHURCH DOCTRINE. Meanwhile, Muslim, Jewish, Catholic and Protestant leaders in Tyumen have written to Patriarch Aleksii II asking him whether the notion that Jews ritually murder Christian children in order to use their blood is still part of the Orthodox teaching as one religious instructor at Tyumen’s Oil and Gas University has told her students (www.islam.ru/rus/2008-08-19/#22296
RUSSIANS STAND IN LINE MORE OFTEN AND LONGER THAN ANYONE ELSE. According to a study conducted by the Mystery Shopping Providers Association, Russians stand in line longer at supermarkets, banks and transportation companies than do any nation in Europe, “Novyye izvestiya” reported. Russians wait an average of three minutes for service, while in Ireland and Sweden, customers wait an average of 54 seconds. The survey also found that Russian sales personnel are far less committed to providing service to their customers than are sales people elsewhere (http://www.newizv.ru/news/2008-08-19/96267/).
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Window on Eurasia Shorts for August 23 – Georgian Events
Some news items about events in and around Georgia during the last week which have attracted less attention than they deserve:
RUSSIAN ACTION IN GEORGIA CHANGES POLICY CALCULATIONS OF NEIGHBORS. According to Vitaly Kulik, the director of the Kyiv Center for Research on the Problems of Civil Society, Russia’s military action in Georgia is forcing all the countries of the region to rethink their foreign policies, possibly leading some to be more deferential to Moscow and others to seek protection either by allying themselves more closely with the West or building up their own military forces. In the past, he said, almost all of these countries operated on the assumption that whatever else Moscow might do, it was unlikely to use military force against them (forum.msk.ru/material/fpolitic/517911.html).
IS MOSCOW NOW TRYING TO DESTABILIZE AZERBAIJAN? While there is much debate about who is responsible for both the explosion at Baku’s Abu Bakr mosque and another at an electric power relay station there, at least some people in Azerbaijan now believe that these actions are intended to destabilize Azerbaijan and that Russian special forces are one of the groups that might have an interest in doing so (1news.az/interview/20080818051647158.html).
KAZAKHSTAN SAYS GEORGIA’S EXIT FROM CIS WON’T AFFECT TIES. Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry announced that a decision by Georgia to leave the Commonwealth of Independent States would not have any impact on Astana’s bilateral ties with Tbilisi. The relationship, a ministry representative said, is based on mutual interests and bilateral accords. Such a statement, of course, may make it easier for other countries to consider leaving that post-Soviet grouping, steps Moscow very much opposes (www.easttime.ru/news/1/3/689.html).
ESTONIA’S ILVES CALLS FOR ADMITTING ‘WHAT’S LEFT OF GEORGIA’ TO NATO. Many commentators and officials in the West are arguing that NATO cannot possibly move to include Georgia in its ranks because of the presence of Russian military forces there, but Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves has suggested that this should not be an impediment but rather a reason for quick action. And he has called for admitting to NATO’s ranks both Ukraine and “what’s left of Georgia” as soon as possible (evrazia.org/n.php?id=3150).
VORONEZH DEMOCRATS PROTEST MOSCOW’S ACTIONS IN GEORGIA. The democratic opposition in Voronezh on August 22 staged a protest against Russian actions in Georgia, the Sobkorr.ru portal reported. Organizers, who included RNDS, OGF and the Soldiers’ Mothers Movement distributed broadsides against the war, and some ordinary citizens who joined the protest denounced what they called “the senseless ‘hurrah patriotism’” informing Russian moves (www.sobkorr.ru/news/48AEB3582CE50.html).
SOLDIERS’ MOTHERS SEEKS INVESTIGATION ON USE OF DRAFTEES IN GEORGIA. The Russian defense ministry after promising earlier that it would no longer sent draftees into harm’s way acknowledged that it had done just that in the case of the introduction of the 58th Russian Army into Georgia. Now the Union of Committees of Soldiers’ Mothers has called on military prosecutors to investigate how this happened, something the union said was a violation not only of official promises but of Russian laws (www.agentura.ru/?id=1219262400).
RUSSIAN ACTION IN GEORGIA EXACERBATES EAST-WEST DIVIDE IN UKRAINE. A poll conducted by “Segodnya” and the Research 7 Branding Group found that 56 percent of people in Eastern Ukraine back Moscow’s actions in Georgia while 51 percent of those sampled in Western Ukraine support Georgia, an indication of the continuing split in that country and one that at least some in Moscow may hope to provoke and exploit (www.vlasti.net/news/20342).
RUSSIAN MYSTIC DOESN’T SEE A GEORGIA IN THE FUTURE. Vanga, a Russian seer whom many Russians look to for predictions, says that he cannot see Georgia continuing to exist in the future (topnews.ru/media_id_4781.html#georgia). Meanwhile, a Russian forensic psychiatrist has said that a picture showing President Mihkiel Saakashvili eating his tie indicates the Georgian leader is mad (www.rusk.ru/newsdata.php?idar=178086) And the Amal Research Center, a Muslim organization, said that the recent fighting shows that “Georgia is to Russia what Cuba is to the US” (www.rusk.ru/newsdata.php?idar=178086).
MOSCOW SAYS GEORGIAN REFUGEES CAN RETURN TO SOUTH OSSETIA. Even though South Ossetian leaders have announced that their republic no longer has any ethnic Georgians living there and that they do not plan to allow them to return, the Russian foreign ministry has said, possibly to make itself look good in the West, that Georgian refugees have the right to return there (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/newstext/news/id/1227382.html).
DETAILED MAPS RELEASED ON MILITARY OPS, AIRSTRIKES IN GEORGIA. Several Moscow websites have carried detailed maps of the positions of troops, the location of battles, and the sites of airstrikes. Among the most informative of these maps are those to be found at forum.msk.ru/material/power/519672.html.
NEW UNPO REPORT ON SELF-DETERMINATION IN CAUCASUS AFTER GEORGIA. The conflict in Georgia has reordered many things, including thinking about self-determination in many of the minority nationality areas in the Caucasus. For an update, see the 30-page paper prepared and released by the Unrecognized Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO) online at www.unpo.org/images/reports/unpo%20report%20-%20caucasian%20concerns.pdf.
RUSSIAN ACTION IN GEORGIA CHANGES POLICY CALCULATIONS OF NEIGHBORS. According to Vitaly Kulik, the director of the Kyiv Center for Research on the Problems of Civil Society, Russia’s military action in Georgia is forcing all the countries of the region to rethink their foreign policies, possibly leading some to be more deferential to Moscow and others to seek protection either by allying themselves more closely with the West or building up their own military forces. In the past, he said, almost all of these countries operated on the assumption that whatever else Moscow might do, it was unlikely to use military force against them (forum.msk.ru/material/fpolitic/517911.html).
IS MOSCOW NOW TRYING TO DESTABILIZE AZERBAIJAN? While there is much debate about who is responsible for both the explosion at Baku’s Abu Bakr mosque and another at an electric power relay station there, at least some people in Azerbaijan now believe that these actions are intended to destabilize Azerbaijan and that Russian special forces are one of the groups that might have an interest in doing so (1news.az/interview/20080818051647158.html).
KAZAKHSTAN SAYS GEORGIA’S EXIT FROM CIS WON’T AFFECT TIES. Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry announced that a decision by Georgia to leave the Commonwealth of Independent States would not have any impact on Astana’s bilateral ties with Tbilisi. The relationship, a ministry representative said, is based on mutual interests and bilateral accords. Such a statement, of course, may make it easier for other countries to consider leaving that post-Soviet grouping, steps Moscow very much opposes (www.easttime.ru/news/1/3/689.html).
ESTONIA’S ILVES CALLS FOR ADMITTING ‘WHAT’S LEFT OF GEORGIA’ TO NATO. Many commentators and officials in the West are arguing that NATO cannot possibly move to include Georgia in its ranks because of the presence of Russian military forces there, but Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves has suggested that this should not be an impediment but rather a reason for quick action. And he has called for admitting to NATO’s ranks both Ukraine and “what’s left of Georgia” as soon as possible (evrazia.org/n.php?id=3150).
VORONEZH DEMOCRATS PROTEST MOSCOW’S ACTIONS IN GEORGIA. The democratic opposition in Voronezh on August 22 staged a protest against Russian actions in Georgia, the Sobkorr.ru portal reported. Organizers, who included RNDS, OGF and the Soldiers’ Mothers Movement distributed broadsides against the war, and some ordinary citizens who joined the protest denounced what they called “the senseless ‘hurrah patriotism’” informing Russian moves (www.sobkorr.ru/news/48AEB3582CE50.html).
SOLDIERS’ MOTHERS SEEKS INVESTIGATION ON USE OF DRAFTEES IN GEORGIA. The Russian defense ministry after promising earlier that it would no longer sent draftees into harm’s way acknowledged that it had done just that in the case of the introduction of the 58th Russian Army into Georgia. Now the Union of Committees of Soldiers’ Mothers has called on military prosecutors to investigate how this happened, something the union said was a violation not only of official promises but of Russian laws (www.agentura.ru/?id=1219262400).
RUSSIAN ACTION IN GEORGIA EXACERBATES EAST-WEST DIVIDE IN UKRAINE. A poll conducted by “Segodnya” and the Research 7 Branding Group found that 56 percent of people in Eastern Ukraine back Moscow’s actions in Georgia while 51 percent of those sampled in Western Ukraine support Georgia, an indication of the continuing split in that country and one that at least some in Moscow may hope to provoke and exploit (www.vlasti.net/news/20342).
RUSSIAN MYSTIC DOESN’T SEE A GEORGIA IN THE FUTURE. Vanga, a Russian seer whom many Russians look to for predictions, says that he cannot see Georgia continuing to exist in the future (topnews.ru/media_id_4781.html#georgia). Meanwhile, a Russian forensic psychiatrist has said that a picture showing President Mihkiel Saakashvili eating his tie indicates the Georgian leader is mad (www.rusk.ru/newsdata.php?idar=178086) And the Amal Research Center, a Muslim organization, said that the recent fighting shows that “Georgia is to Russia what Cuba is to the US” (www.rusk.ru/newsdata.php?idar=178086).
MOSCOW SAYS GEORGIAN REFUGEES CAN RETURN TO SOUTH OSSETIA. Even though South Ossetian leaders have announced that their republic no longer has any ethnic Georgians living there and that they do not plan to allow them to return, the Russian foreign ministry has said, possibly to make itself look good in the West, that Georgian refugees have the right to return there (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/newstext/news/id/1227382.html).
DETAILED MAPS RELEASED ON MILITARY OPS, AIRSTRIKES IN GEORGIA. Several Moscow websites have carried detailed maps of the positions of troops, the location of battles, and the sites of airstrikes. Among the most informative of these maps are those to be found at forum.msk.ru/material/power/519672.html.
NEW UNPO REPORT ON SELF-DETERMINATION IN CAUCASUS AFTER GEORGIA. The conflict in Georgia has reordered many things, including thinking about self-determination in many of the minority nationality areas in the Caucasus. For an update, see the 30-page paper prepared and released by the Unrecognized Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO) online at www.unpo.org/images/reports/unpo%20report%20-%20caucasian%20concerns.pdf.
Window on Eurasia: How Many Countries Would Follow Moscow in Recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
Paul Goble
Vienna, August 23 – Georgian Foreign Minister Yekaterina Tkeshelashvili says that if Moscow goes ahead and recognizes either or both Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries, that action will do little besides becoming an embarrassment for Russia because no other country will follow its lead.
But some commentators and officials in Moscow and elsewhere disagree, arguing either that Russian recognition alone would change the situation much as Turkey’s lone recognition of North Cyprus has or that either a few countries like Belarus and Venezuela could be counted to follow Moscow’s lead or perhaps as many as 15 to 20.
An article on the Kavkaz-uzel.ru news portal today brings together the various strands of this debate, one that is likely to heat up soon either if Moscow takes unilateral action soon or if Abkhazia and South Ossetia carry out the referenda on independence that Russian parliamentarians have suggested (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/newstext/news/id/1227713.html).
If Moscow takes unilateral action, Tkeshelashvili said at a briefing in Tbilisi yesterday, that step will not have “any serious legal consequences” because such a step would “contradict international law.” What it would do, she continued, is to “show yet again the intentions [Moscow] had when it invaded the territory of Georgia.”
As a result, the Georgian foreign minister insisted in the words of the Kavkaz-uzel.ru report, “such a step would be dangerous for the political image of Russia because the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia are recognized by the entire international community” except of course for Russia.
But many others have called into question Tkeshelashvili’s confidence. Aleksey Makarkin who is the deputy director of the Moscow Center of Political Technology, according to “Vedomosti,” is arguing that a Kremlin decision to respond positively to the Abkhaz and South Ossetian calls for independence is possible, depending on two factors.
On the one hand, he said, Russia will want to find at least one other country – even if it is only Belarus – to join Moscow in doing so, lest Abkhazia and South Ossetia find themselves in a situation like Northern Cyprus “which is recognized only by Turkey,” something that would create new problems for both them and the Russian government.
And on the other, Makarkin said, Moscow will have to test the waters with Moldova and Azerbaijan and be in a position to explain to them that it will not adopt a similar position toward Karabakh and Transdniestria if Baku and Chisinau show “a sufficiently constructive” attitude toward what Moscow is doing.
Meanwhile, Russian regional development minister Dmitry Kozak, who has a longstanding interest in the Caucasus, told ITAR-Tass that after what has happened in recent days, Moscow will be even more inclined to support the independence of South Ossetia than it was earlier, regardless of how many other countries might go along.
Vladimir Lukin, Moscow’s former ambassador in Washington and now plenipotentiary for human rights, argues, “Deutsche Welle” reported, that Moscow should delay taking action on the Abkhaz and South Ossetian requests lest it “provoke” NATO into admitting Georgia immediately.
Russia finds itself in a difficult position, “Vremya novostey” reports. If Moscow moves to recognize these two republics, “then this can be interpreted as a retreat from the promises it gave to the West community,” but “if it does not start [the process of recognition], then it will be retreating from promises given to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.”
However that might be, the paper continued, Russia’s foreign ministry clearly wants to “avoid a situation when after Russia no one will recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia besides Belarus, Cuba or Venezuela,” something that because of comparisons with Kosovo, would highlight Russia’s isolation rather than confirm its strength.
Meanwhile, an article in “The Wall Street Journal” noted that Abkhazian officials believe that the strength of Abkhaz diasporas in Turkey, Jordan and Syria would convince these countries to follow Russia’s lead, especially since the Abkhaz in these three states are being supported by the much larger and more politically active Circassian communities there.
But at least one Russian commentator believes a Russian move would prompt a larger group of countries to do the same. Maksim Shevchenko, a frequent commentator, said that 15 to 20 countries would follow Russia’s lead more or less immediately, with even more to follow, something that would “mean that the sovereignty [of the two] would be solidified.”
Obviously, these various projections reflect the hopes of those making them, but they also provide a road map for future action both by those who hope Abkhazia and South Ossetia will become independent and also by those who oppose that and want to find a way to ensure the territorial integrity of Georgia.
Vienna, August 23 – Georgian Foreign Minister Yekaterina Tkeshelashvili says that if Moscow goes ahead and recognizes either or both Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries, that action will do little besides becoming an embarrassment for Russia because no other country will follow its lead.
But some commentators and officials in Moscow and elsewhere disagree, arguing either that Russian recognition alone would change the situation much as Turkey’s lone recognition of North Cyprus has or that either a few countries like Belarus and Venezuela could be counted to follow Moscow’s lead or perhaps as many as 15 to 20.
An article on the Kavkaz-uzel.ru news portal today brings together the various strands of this debate, one that is likely to heat up soon either if Moscow takes unilateral action soon or if Abkhazia and South Ossetia carry out the referenda on independence that Russian parliamentarians have suggested (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/newstext/news/id/1227713.html).
If Moscow takes unilateral action, Tkeshelashvili said at a briefing in Tbilisi yesterday, that step will not have “any serious legal consequences” because such a step would “contradict international law.” What it would do, she continued, is to “show yet again the intentions [Moscow] had when it invaded the territory of Georgia.”
As a result, the Georgian foreign minister insisted in the words of the Kavkaz-uzel.ru report, “such a step would be dangerous for the political image of Russia because the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia are recognized by the entire international community” except of course for Russia.
But many others have called into question Tkeshelashvili’s confidence. Aleksey Makarkin who is the deputy director of the Moscow Center of Political Technology, according to “Vedomosti,” is arguing that a Kremlin decision to respond positively to the Abkhaz and South Ossetian calls for independence is possible, depending on two factors.
On the one hand, he said, Russia will want to find at least one other country – even if it is only Belarus – to join Moscow in doing so, lest Abkhazia and South Ossetia find themselves in a situation like Northern Cyprus “which is recognized only by Turkey,” something that would create new problems for both them and the Russian government.
And on the other, Makarkin said, Moscow will have to test the waters with Moldova and Azerbaijan and be in a position to explain to them that it will not adopt a similar position toward Karabakh and Transdniestria if Baku and Chisinau show “a sufficiently constructive” attitude toward what Moscow is doing.
Meanwhile, Russian regional development minister Dmitry Kozak, who has a longstanding interest in the Caucasus, told ITAR-Tass that after what has happened in recent days, Moscow will be even more inclined to support the independence of South Ossetia than it was earlier, regardless of how many other countries might go along.
Vladimir Lukin, Moscow’s former ambassador in Washington and now plenipotentiary for human rights, argues, “Deutsche Welle” reported, that Moscow should delay taking action on the Abkhaz and South Ossetian requests lest it “provoke” NATO into admitting Georgia immediately.
Russia finds itself in a difficult position, “Vremya novostey” reports. If Moscow moves to recognize these two republics, “then this can be interpreted as a retreat from the promises it gave to the West community,” but “if it does not start [the process of recognition], then it will be retreating from promises given to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.”
However that might be, the paper continued, Russia’s foreign ministry clearly wants to “avoid a situation when after Russia no one will recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia besides Belarus, Cuba or Venezuela,” something that because of comparisons with Kosovo, would highlight Russia’s isolation rather than confirm its strength.
Meanwhile, an article in “The Wall Street Journal” noted that Abkhazian officials believe that the strength of Abkhaz diasporas in Turkey, Jordan and Syria would convince these countries to follow Russia’s lead, especially since the Abkhaz in these three states are being supported by the much larger and more politically active Circassian communities there.
But at least one Russian commentator believes a Russian move would prompt a larger group of countries to do the same. Maksim Shevchenko, a frequent commentator, said that 15 to 20 countries would follow Russia’s lead more or less immediately, with even more to follow, something that would “mean that the sovereignty [of the two] would be solidified.”
Obviously, these various projections reflect the hopes of those making them, but they also provide a road map for future action both by those who hope Abkhazia and South Ossetia will become independent and also by those who oppose that and want to find a way to ensure the territorial integrity of Georgia.
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